Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Bowl Games

Avoid these mistakes when betting bowl games.

Key Points

– Bettors should understand the public action when betting bowl games.

– A number of factors should be considered when betting bowl games.

Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Bowl Games

There are over 40 bowl games at the end of each college football season. Two of the bowls are part of the annual College Football Playoff. They are one of the New Year’s Six - Rose, Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, and Peach.

The two national semifinals consistently receive more media coverage and betting interest than all other bowls combined. It makes sense that the betting public is drawn to these games more than the others.

You can always count on more mistakes are some of the major major blunders college football bettors should steer clear of when betting bowl games.

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Don’t Ignore Coaching Changes

The college football coaching carousel will start rolling near the end of the regular season. Programs will fire head coaches and others will fill those roles creating a ripple effect throughout the sport.

Some of the programs affected will be bowl teams. It’s also worth tracking any assistant coaching changes. An offensive or defensive coordinator that changes schools can also have an impact on a bowl game.

What happens frequently is that coaches are hired away from really good teams - bowl teams - leaving a void that must be filled for the bowl game. For example, an offensive coordinator from a high-powered offense and highly ranked team, leaves to take a head coaching job at a new school. Who will call the team’s plays in the bowl game?

The betting public will be very interested in what happens if a head coach leaves, but they will frequently be much less interested if an assistant coach leaves. Assistants, specifically coordinators, have a great impact on a team’s performance. Smart bettors will use this information when betting bowl games.

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Focusing on Stats & Rankings When Betting Bowl Games

You should know by now that the public always falls for all the hype. The media will hype certain teams and the public will disregard the team’s strength of schedule, where they played an opponent, and much more.

Rankings are not always a reliable indicator of how teams compare. Rankings are often based more on reputation and hype than on reality. Think about a Power 5 team that is 5-0 or 6-0 as it heads into the midpoint of a season. The team enters the AP Top 25 amidst all the hype of its unbeaten record.

Upon closer examination, smart bettors find that the team had one win over an FCS program and all the other wins were over teams with losing records. The team goes on to finish 6-6 for the season.

It’s important when betting bowl games to look at a team’s performance on the field. Don’t judge a team based on what the media tells you. That information is often deceptive.

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Don’t Ignore the Basic Matchups

Too often, bettors do not look at matchups. The matchup between a quarterback and a pass defense, for example, can be a crucial element in the outcome of any college football game.

If one team has players that have greater skills than the opponent, that should play a role in the handicapping of a game. In bowl games, there will be games where a Power 5 team plays a Group of 5 team that didn’t win its conference. You can bet there are some serious mismatches on the field in a game like that.

Bettors will disregard some of these mismatches in favor of other things like the viewpoints of talking heads on various sports broadcasts. Again, a lot of that information can be deceiving. Look at how teams performed on the field. You might consider these college football betting tips too.

The Public & Betting Bowl Games

Bettors should not ignore the effects of the betting public on a bowl game. The more the betting public pays attention to a football game, the more you need to be aware of their betting patterns. You have to be able to determine the effects of those patterns on the betting line. Explaining football line movements is a desired skill of the bowl bettor.

In big games, the public wagers enthusiastically, but their bets are usually based on hype. They can be influenced by things like what the media says. The media keeps saying that one team has superior plays and that their conference is stronger. Bettors take that information and bet blindly. Don’t fall for the trap.

Keep in mind that sportsbooks will shade lines toward a favorite knowing that the public doesn’t really care as much about the numbers. That makes finding value on bowl favorites a bit more difficult. If you don’t understand this concept, you might end up placing bets and taking odds that are not in your favor. Make sure you have a dynamic sportsbook that meets all your college football needs.

Putting Too Much Value on the CFP

College football teams compete all year long in an attempt to finish the season ranked in the final CFP top-4. That means they have qualified for the college football playoff.

The final CFP rankings are released after the conference championship games are completed. Bettors should realize that just because a team is ranked No. 6 in the CFP poll that doesn’t automatically mean they will beat the No. 17 team in a bowl game.

There are simply too many variables to make the final choice that easy. Bettors must take into account all of the necessary stats, any coaching changes, player opt-outs, and much more. Be sure you have a betting portal where you can find all of this relevant information.

Keep in mind that one of the biggest factors in betting bowl games is motivation. Each bowl season, there are teams that really don’t want to be in their bowl game. Take a team that loses late in the season and misses out on an opportunity for a conference championship.

You might have a 10-2 team playing in a lower-tier bowl game against a Group of 5 team that is hungry to prove itself. This happens each bowl season. Don’t discount the motivation factor when betting bowl games.