Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Bowl
Avoid these mistakes
when betting bowl games.
Ė Bettors should
understand the public action when betting bowl games.
Ė A number of
factors should be considered when betting bowl games.
to Avoid When Betting Bowl Games
There are over 40
bowl games at the end of each college football season. Two of the bowls are
part of the annual College Football Playoff. They are one of the New Yearís Six
- Rose, Cotton, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, and Peach.
The two national
semifinals consistently receive more media coverage and betting interest than
all other bowls combined. It makes sense that the betting public is drawn to
these games more than the others.
You can always count
on more mistakes are some of the major major blunders college football bettors
should steer clear of when betting bowl games.
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Ignore Coaching Changes
The college football
coaching carousel will start rolling near the end of the regular season.
Programs will fire head coaches and others will fill those roles creating a
ripple effect throughout the sport.
Some of the programs
affected will be bowl teams. Itís also worth tracking any assistant coaching
changes. An offensive or defensive coordinator that changes schools can also
have an impact on a bowl game.
frequently is that coaches are hired away from really good teams - bowl teams -
leaving a void that must be filled for the bowl game. For example, an offensive
coordinator from a high-powered offense and highly ranked team, leaves to take
a head coaching job at a new school. Who will call the teamís plays in the bowl
The betting public
will be very interested in what happens if a head coach leaves, but they will
frequently be much less interested if an assistant coach leaves. Assistants,
specifically coordinators, have a great impact on a teamís performance. Smart
bettors will use this information when betting bowl games.
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on Stats & Rankings When Betting Bowl Games
You should know by
now that the public always falls for all the hype. The media will hype certain
teams and the public will disregard the teamís strength of schedule, where they
played an opponent, and much more.
Rankings are not
always a reliable indicator of how teams compare. Rankings are often based more
on reputation and hype than on reality. Think about a Power 5 team that is 5-0
or 6-0 as it heads into the midpoint of a season. The team enters the AP Top 25
amidst all the hype of its unbeaten record.
examination, smart bettors find that the team had one win over an FCS program
and all the other wins were over teams with losing records. The team goes on to
finish 6-6 for the season.
Itís important when
betting bowl games to look at a teamís performance on the field. Donít judge a
team based on what the media tells you. That information is often deceptive.
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Ignore the Basic Matchups
Too often, bettors
do not look at matchups. The matchup between a quarterback and a pass defense,
for example, can be a crucial element in the outcome of any college football
If one team has
players that have greater skills than the opponent, that should play a role in
the handicapping of a game. In bowl games, there will be games where a Power 5
team plays a Group of 5 team that didnít win its conference. You can bet there
are some serious mismatches on the field in a game like that.
disregard some of these mismatches in favor of other things like the viewpoints
of talking heads on various sports broadcasts. Again, a lot of that information
can be deceiving. Look at how teams performed on the field. You might consider
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Public & Betting Bowl Games
Bettors should not
ignore the effects of the betting public on a bowl game. The more the betting
public pays attention to a football game, the more you need to be aware of
their betting patterns. You have to be able to determine the effects of those
patterns on the betting line. Explaining football line movements is a desired skill
of the bowl bettor.
In big games, the
public wagers enthusiastically, but their bets are usually based on hype. They
can be influenced by things like what the media says. The media keeps saying
that one team has superior plays and that their conference is stronger. Bettors
take that information and bet blindly. Donít fall for the trap.
Keep in mind that
sportsbooks will shade lines toward a favorite knowing that the public doesnít
really care as much about the numbers. That makes finding value on bowl
favorites a bit more difficult. If you donít understand this concept, you might
end up placing bets and taking odds that are not in your favor. Make sure you
have a dynamic
sportsbook that meets all your college football needs.
Too Much Value on the CFP
teams compete all year long in an attempt to finish the season ranked in the
final CFP top-4. That means they have qualified for the college football
The final CFP
rankings are released after the conference championship games are completed.
Bettors should realize that just because a team is ranked No. 6 in the CFP poll
that doesnít automatically mean they will beat the No. 17 team in a bowl game.
There are simply too
many variables to make the final choice that easy. Bettors must take into
account all of the necessary stats, any coaching changes, player opt-outs, and
much more. Be sure you have a betting portal where you can find all of
this relevant information.
Keep in mind that
one of the biggest factors in betting bowl games is motivation. Each bowl
season, there are teams that really donít want to be in their bowl game. Take a
team that loses late in the season and misses out on an opportunity for a
You might have a
10-2 team playing in a lower-tier bowl game against a Group of 5 team that is
hungry to prove itself. This happens each bowl season. Donít discount the
motivation factor when betting bowl games.