The Bears might be the most average 4-1 team in NFL history. That’s likely why they are a 1-point underdog to a Carolina team that appeared headed for disaster after starting 0-2 and losing superstar RB Christian McCaffrey.

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But, the Panthers rebounded to win three straight and are now a favorite at home for the first time this season.Can they beat the Bears? More importantly, do the Panthers provide any betting value?

Game: Chicago Bears (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-2 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 18, 2020

Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

America’s Bookie Current Line: CAR -1    Total: 45

TV Coverage: FOX Sports

The answer to both questions is a resounding “not likely.” Carolina’s three victories were over the Chargers, Cardinals, and Falcons. That’s three teams with a combined 4-11 record and three of those wins are Arizona’s.

Why the Panthers Struggle

Here’s why the Panthers struggle and will face a huge challenge in beating the Bears. For the season, Carolina’s defense has recorded just five sacks. In the metric known as pressure rate - the rate at which the defense gets pressure on a quarterback - the Panthers check in at 13.5 percent. 

Whether you know anything about that statistic or not, the fact that Carolina is 31st in the NFL in both of those categories - sacks and pressure rate - is telling. When you add in a few other statistics, you begin to see that the Carolina defense just isn’t all that good.

The Panthers give up 355.6 yards per game. That is 19th in the league. Carolina ranks 16th in yards allowed per play (5.7) and they are 31st in rushing yards per attempt (5.4). It’s not surprising that the Panthers allow 60 percent of runs to be successful and that they rank 28th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

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Bears Run Game Better Than Advertised

Now, bettors can look at Chicago and see that the Bears don’t run the ball all that well. Over the past two weeks, Chicago has averaged 1.6 and 2.5 yards per carry against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, respectively.

However, note that Indianapolis and Tampa Bay are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive DVOA and are at or near the top of most defensive statistical categories. In the Bears' other three games, they averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

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Chicago is also one of the better defenses in the NFL ranking ninth in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. They are also seventh in defensive DVOA and rank 10th in yards per play at 5.2.

Playing on the road shouldn’t be a problem for Chicago. They are 2-0 away from Soldier Field. What is a lingering problem for bettors is the Bears recent ATS streak. If you go back to the Bears last 17 games, they are 5-12 ATS. They are 3-2 ATS so far this season, but covering a +1 is essentially betting on the Bears to win.

That’s why smart bettors should bet the Bears on the moneyline at +132.

NFL Free Pick: CHICAGO +132