Pick | Bears @ Panthers
might be the most average 4-1 team in NFL history. That’s likely why they are a
1-point underdog to a Carolina team that appeared headed for disaster after
starting 0-2 and losing superstar RB Christian McCaffrey.
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Panthers rebounded to win three straight and are now a favorite at home for the
first time this season.Can they beat the Bears? More importantly, do the
Panthers provide any betting value?
Chicago Bears (4-1, 3-2 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
PM ET, Sunday, October 18, 2020
of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Bookie Current Line: CAR -1 Total:
Coverage: FOX Sports
to both questions is a resounding “not likely.” Carolina’s three victories were
over the Chargers, Cardinals, and Falcons. That’s three teams with a combined
4-11 record and three of those wins are Arizona’s.
the Panthers struggle and will face a huge challenge in beating the Bears. For
the season, Carolina’s defense has recorded just five sacks. In the metric
known as pressure rate - the rate at which the defense gets pressure on a
quarterback - the Panthers check in at 13.5 percent.
know anything about that statistic or not, the fact that Carolina is 31st in
the NFL in both of those categories - sacks and pressure rate - is telling.
When you add in a few other statistics, you begin to see that the Carolina
defense just isn’t all that good.
Panthers give up 355.6 yards per game. That is 19th in the league. Carolina
ranks 16th in yards allowed per play (5.7) and they are 31st in rushing yards
per attempt (5.4). It’s not surprising that the Panthers allow 60 percent of
runs to be successful and that they rank 28th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value
Week 6 Free Action: Packers
@ Buccaneers Betting Pick
Game Better Than Advertised
bettors can look at Chicago and see that the Bears don’t run the ball all that
well. Over the past two weeks, Chicago has averaged 1.6 and 2.5 yards per carry
against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, respectively.
note that Indianapolis and Tampa Bay are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive
DVOA and are at or near the top of most defensive statistical categories. In
the Bears' other three games, they averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
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also one of the better defenses in the NFL ranking ninth in total defense and
fourth in scoring defense. They are also seventh in defensive DVOA and rank
10th in yards per play at 5.2.
the road shouldn’t be a problem for Chicago. They are 2-0 away from Soldier
Field. What is a lingering problem for bettors is the Bears recent ATS streak.
If you go back to the Bears last 17 games, they are 5-12 ATS. They are 3-2 ATS
so far this season, but covering a +1 is essentially betting on the Bears to
That’s why smart bettors
should bet the Bears on the moneyline at +132.
Pick: CHICAGO +132