When Betting Heavy Underdogs Makes
Sense
Sometimes, betting
heavy underdogs makes sense. A lot of bettors shy away from big moneyline
underdogs just as they don’t bet huge moneyline favorites. There are, however,
times when it makes sense to back a big underdog.
Key Points
– It takes skill to
identify when betting heavy underdogs makes sense.
– You don’t need to
win as often when betting heavy underdogs.
The
Power of Betting Heavy Underdogs
Many gamblers,
perhaps even the majority, dislike placing moneyline wagers on significant
underdogs. They turn elsewhere, frequently to the heavy favorites. They believe
that the large potential payouts that come with the high level of risk on the
underdog have a low likelihood of paying off.
That is often
understandable. An underdog, especially one given extremely long odds, is an
underdog for a reason. However, there are times when ignoring those strong
underdogs simply entails leaving a sizable profit on the table.
It's easy to
understand the draw of strong underdogs. They don't need to win very frequently
to turn a profit. To break even, a +200 underdog needs to win just one-third of
the time. A +300 underdog only needs to win 25% of the time.
The issue is that
you gradually go bankrupt by betting on teams because they frequently aren't
capable of winning at a high enough rate to generate a profit. The key is
learning to do things like read NBA playoff lines and understand the
impact of public betting..
Here are three
scenarios that deserve closer attention
Overhyped
Favorites
Favorites are often
overhyped. Think about popular teams when wagering on sports. Teams like the Yankees
and Dodgers in baseball, the Chiefs in the NFL, and Alabama and Georgia in
college football often receive too much attention.
The greater the
value an underdog provides, or the greater the discrepancy between their
chances of winning and the risk you are taking by placing the wager, the more
appealing they become.
When the general
public under-rates a team, that is one of the best times to find value. That
typically occurs when a favorite receives more attention than they should. That
does not mean you should always bet on the underdog when the public is heavily
backing the favorite.
You can be
reasonably certain, however, that the books will change the odds to make a
favorite less appealing when the public is heavily backing it in order to
reduce their risk.
Take the Yankees as
an example. Sportsbooks will list New York at -220 even though they should
really be listed at -175. The books know that the public will bet on the
Yankees anyway.
That also means the
underdog may have inflated odds and lines as well. Normally, you
might not back a +275 underdog. But, since that underdog should really be listed
at +170, you decide to take the value.
ICYMI: HOW THE KELLY CRITERION CAN INCREASE YOUR BANKROLL
Spot a
Favorable Matchup
In order to take
advantage of betting heavy underdogs, you have to be able to spot favorable
matchups. Remember, the odds are primarily determined by how the general public
expects a game to go. You should have a top-notch online portal
where you can check odds, stats, and more.
The betting public
is more likely to rely on opinions and overt performance indicators than on
subtleties. The public may not be aware of a matchup that is actually very
favorable for the underdog.
For instance, a
baseball underdog might be playing a team that is vastly superior, but they
have recently been hitting left-handed pitchers well as a team while the
favorite has been having trouble against lefties. If both teams' starting
pitchers are lefties, you may have a chance to get a good deal.
It could be a
favorite in a college football game that has a very strong defense. However,
the defense doesn’t do well against strong option-oriented offenses like the
one they'll face in this particular game.
Both scenarios would
probably go unnoticed by the general public, which could make the underdogs
more enticing than they ought to be.
Betting
Heavy Underdogs When Motivated
If a game has a
heavy favorite, chances are good that the favorite would win if both teams
played to their potential. However, if you follow sports closely, you are aware
that teams occasionally fall short of their potential.
Those games can
occasionally come as a complete surprise, which is unfortunate if you bet on
them. If you want to stay ahead of the bookies, you have to be
able to predict which team will be significantly more motivated than the other.
The best example of
this would be late in a season, when the favorite has essentially locked up a
playoff spot. An NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL team that has qualified for the playoffs
might not be particularly motivated when playing the worst team in its league.
The playoff team
will definitely be favored at your sportsbook and smart bettors would be
wise to take a look at the entire picture. The favorite may rest all of their
starters or at least limit their minutes.
The underdog may be
made up of young, hungry players that would love nothing more than to beat a
playoff team before the end of a season. This is a great situation for bettors
to take advantage of betting heavy underdogs.
